The Republic of Serbia is experiencing demographic characteristics of low fertility,
high mortality, negative natural increase rate, negative migration balance, and
depopulation of rural areas. The National Human Development Report Serbia 2022,
conducted by UNFPA and UNDP, highlights that, in light of the inevitable
demographic changes, public policies should be aimed at strengthening the
opportunities, potentials, and freedoms of all people, while demographic issues
should be included in all relevant public policies.
Recent research suggests that the reduced progression to first and second child
poses an increasingly significant challenge to the recovery of the total fertility rate,
despite the widespread perception that this is a reduction in higher child parity. At
the same time, the pronounced gender imbalance in the spatial distribution of the
population that is part of the life cycle is crucial for starting a family and accelerates
the processes of population aging and poverty in Serbia.
With the objective of changing narratives around inevitable demographic transition,
in 2020, the UNFPA Regional Office for Eastern Europe and Central Asia established
the Demographic Resilience Programme to assist countries in the region with
strengthening their capacity to understand and anticipate the population dynamics
they are experiencing and ensure they have the necessary skills, tools, political will,
and public support to manage them. The Programme aims to develop
comprehensive policy responses that are based on evidence and human rights,
prosperity, and well-being for all. Understanding population dynamics from the
perspective of the Demographic Resilience Programme allows one to better
understand their implications and develop adequate political responses that can
mitigate the negative effects of such population dynamics both for an individual's
well-being and for the general socio-economic development of society. This concept
is strongly based on demographic data, such as censuses and special surveys, as
well as demographic tools for their analysis. Such analyses imply the integration of
micro and macro analytical approaches to the assessment of population dynamics
and its components, which then contributes to the understanding of the interaction
between individual behavior and demographic dynamics and creates a basis for
formulating policies and programs based on data.
The Census of Population, Households, and Dwellings in Serbia was conducted in
October 2022, which is the largest and most complex statistical survey in terms of
content, scope, and organization. The data from the 2022 Census provides
possibilities for demographic analyses and research, providing an adequate situation
analysis of demographic change in Serbia necessary for moving forward in creating
a demographically resilient society.
Demographic analyses of changes in the fertility patterns of the population in Serbia
typically refer to the female population. Limiting the collection and interpretation of

fertility data to women may lead to ignoring the specifics of men's reproductive
behavior, or to the assumption that the level, patterns, and changes in fertility do not
differ significantly between men and women. The 2022 Census in Serbia asked men
questions about fertility for the first time. Based on previous research in the world,
resulting from the analysis of Census data and specialized surveys, it was
determined that the age pattern, as well as the level of fertility, varies depending on
gender. In addition, Census data allows longitudinal analysis of cohort indicators,
which, in contrast to cross-sectional analysis of periodic fertility indicators, can show
whether current generations of reproductive age reach, exceed, or fall behind the
fertility level of previous generations.
The purpose of this consultancy is to engage two national consultants who will
conduct the Research on the differences in fertility patterns between women and
men in Serbia - understanding the decisions that lead to childbearing or giving up
childbearing. The Research will serve in the creation of practical policies and the
development of programs that will specifically be focused on the following two
objectives:
1. Demographic analysis of male and female fertility cohort indicators -
cumulative and age-specific, based on the Census data;
2. Qualitative research with the aim of understanding partnership dynamics
and decisions related to having a first and second child, as well as giving up
parenthood among the men in Serbia.

The National Consultants are expected to execute the following
tasks/activities:
Task 1. Analyze the 2011 and 2022 Census data using statistical methods to identify
patterns, correlations, and trends in fertility patterns between women and men in
Serbia, collect available statistical data, and create a work plan that will reflect the
methodology, literature review, tasks, and proposed content of the Final Report. The
research methodology will use a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative
methods (analyses based on the Census data) and qualitative methods (in-depth
interviews) in order to identify sociodemographic, personal, family, contextual, and
institutional factors associated with male fertility and parenting decisions.
Task 2. Conduct a demographic analysis of male and female fertility cohort indicators
- cumulative and age-specific, based on the Census data. For the first time in Serbia,
the 2011 Census made it possible to determine the length of intergenesis intervals
(the intervals between successive births), which enable the calculation of parity
progression ratios. By analyzing the data of the 2011 Census and 2022 Census,
consultants will explore whether there has been a change in the patterns in the inter
census period. Furthermore, based on the results of the 2022 Census, consultants
will calculate the other three most important indicators for defining the family planning
model for the male population - cumulative fertility rate, average age at live birth, and
structure according to the number of live births.
Task 3. Conduct qualitative research with the aim of understanding partnership
dynamics and decisions related to having a first and second child, as well as giving up

 parenthood among the men in Serbia. The sample will consist of men between
the ages of 30 and 45 who have one child, and will be formed based on theoretical
assumptions on which characteristics are connected to decisions about parenthood
- such as education, place of residence, etc. Qualitative data will be obtained from
in-depth interviews and analyzed using thematic analysis, recognizing causal links /
correlations with the decision on parenthood. The qualitative research should include
a wide range of potential causes that together lead to the decision of an individual
and/or couple to have the first and each subsequent child, such as: partner dynamics
(a division of housework and parental care), the sphere of work (work arrangements,
work culture), income, material condition, housing situation, informal (relatives,
friends) and formal (parental leave, cash income, preschool institutions, medical
services, etc.) parenting support, and partner values.
Task 4. Prepare a draft of the Final Report on the differences in fertility patterns
between women and men in Serbia - understanding the decisions that lead to
childbearing or giving up childbearing, including visual presentation and narrative
analysis in Serbian. The Report will present the quantitative (male and female fertility
cohort indicators) and qualitative results (partnerships dynamics among men), which
offer an analytical synthesis of the findings and recommendations. The Final Report
should include:
1. Extended abstract;
2. Overview of the situation and the literature;
3. Presentation of the methodology;
4. Presentation of data sources and samples;
5. Key results according to the main sociodemographic characteristics;
6. Findings and conclusions;
7. Recommendations;
8. Bibliography;
9. Appendices
Task 5. Finalize a Report on the differences in fertility patterns between women and
men in Serbia - understanding the decisions that lead to childbearing or giving up
childbearing and submit it to the UNFPA CO Serbia, including a visual presentation
and narrative analysis, in Serbian.

Applicants should send resume (CV) with a motivation letter to vacancies.serbia@unfpa.org, no later than 3rd August 2023, 1.00 PM CET

For more details see attached ful Terms of Reference.