Purpose of consultancy:

The UN Joint Programme PRO - Local Governance for People and Nature (PRO Programme) aims to enhance the well-being and quality of life of citizens by improving local governance, social inclusion, and environmental protection across 110 cities and municipalities in two regions: i) Šumadija and Western Serbia, and ii) Southern and Eastern Serbia. The United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS) will lead the implementation of the project, in partnership with UN agencies (UNICEF, UNFPA, UNEP), over a three-year period from 1st January 2023 to 31st December 2026. UNFPA's component within the PRO Programme focuses on: i) building the capacity of local governments and other relevant local public entities to implement social policies and services; ii) addressing the rights and needs of marginalized groups; iii) enhancing family-centered public service delivery; and iv) improving the quality of life for older persons and youth in Serbia.

Population aging has been a dominant demographic trend in Serbia over the past three decades, with some regions already facing unsustainable levels of population decline. This has placed significant pressure on social and pension insurance systems, as well as long-term and healthcare services. Serbia is among the European countries with the largest share of older persons in the population. According to the Statistical Office of Serbia (SORS), 22% of the population is over the age of 65, meaning one in every five people is older than 65. Given these statistics, it is of critical societal importance to enhance understanding of population aging, considering factors such as gender, urban-rural, and geographic differentials. The Census remains the key data source for assessing the trends and implications of Serbia’s aging population. The data from the 2022 Census allow for in-depth analyses of population structures relevant to aging, including the effects of changes in education attainment and labor force participation on the dependency burden, particularly under conditions of a shrinking and aging population.

As the population ages, older persons are increasingly at risk of poverty. Since the implementation of the UN 2030 Agenda in Serbia, significant progress has been made toward achieving SDG1 (no poverty). The relative poverty rate decreased from 25.9% in 2016 to 21.1% in 2021, and the absolute poverty rate also saw a slight reduction from 7.3% in 2016 to 6.9% in 2020. However, for older persons (65+), the situation has worsened, with their relative poverty rate rising from 20.5% in 2016 to 22.7% in 2021, indicating a partial regression from the goal. Therefore, it is crucial to protect the most vulnerable groups, such as older persons, from the risks of poverty. Collecting detailed, gender-sensitive, and geographically differentiated data is essential for identifying at-risk groups, understanding the drivers of aging-related poverty, and designing targeted interventions that improve the well-being and inclusion of older persons. By leveraging data, policymakers can ensure that effective strategies are in place to address the challenges posed by an aging population and support the achievement of SDG1 for all.

The UNFPA CO Serbia is engaging a National Consultant to: i) conduct an Analysis of population aging in Serbia, focusing on demographic trends, socioeconomic implications, and policy perspectives, and ii) develop a Guide to strengthening the protection of older persons living in poverty in the context of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and its SDGs, as part of the PRO Programme (output 2.4, activity 2.4.3).

The Analysis of population aging in Serbia, focusing on demographic trends, socioeconomic implications, and policy perspectives will be framed within the key factors of human development, such as improvements in life expectancy, education, and economic activity. It will explore population aging in Serbia using both chronological (retrospective) age and prospective (biometric) age, the latter of which is linked to socioeconomic conditions. By combining these two concepts, the analysis will challenge widely accepted findings, such as the feminization of the elderly population, and provide a more comprehensive understanding of aging-related challenges in public policies, particularly those affecting pension and healthcare systems. In addition to common demographic indicators such as age dependency ratios, aging indices, and life table statistics, the labor force dependency ratio will be used to consider activity levels. This approach will offer a more nuanced measure of the pressure on the working-age population, regardless of traditional age thresholds. The analysis will be based on 2022 Census data, disaggregated by gender, education, family, and economic status, as well as on census-based life tables and the Labour Force Survey. Furthermore, the analysis will consider various scenarios of population dynamics and labor force participation patterns to provide a forward-looking perspective on population aging in Serbia.

The Guide to strengthening the protection of older persons living in poverty in the context of the 2030 Agenda will include an analysis of their current situation and the adequacy of material support at the local level, based on readily available data. This analysis will link the SDGs to the position of older persons, in line with the "leave no one behind" principle of the 2030 Agenda. Methodologically, it will involve a literature review and data collection from government institutions, local governments (LGs), Centres for Social Work (CSWs), and the SDG platform, which has already initiated dialogue on aging and the SDGs. Additionally, seven focus group discussions with older persons will be conducted across three regions of Serbia—Southern, Eastern, and Southwestern—to gather relevant, real-time information on improving protection for older persons living in poverty. The guide will provide actionable recommendations for decision-makers at the national and local levels, aimed at improving policies that focus on the most vulnerable older populations. The document will be developed in consultation with the World Bank on methodology, as well as the Ministry of Labour, Employment, Veteran, and Social Affairs (MoLEVSA), Ministry of Family Welfare and Demogrpahy (MoFWD) and the Standing Conference of Towns and Municipalities (SCTM). The guide will be promoted through at least one national roundtable discussion followed by strong advocacy for its use and will also contribute to Serbia’s second Voluntary National Review (VNR).

Scope of work:

The recruited National Consultant will be responsible for undertaking the following main activities:

Activity 1. Develop an outline for both: Analysis of population aging in Serbia, focusing on demographic trends, socioeconomic implications, and policy perspectives, and the Guide to strengthening the protection of older persons living in poverty in the context of the 2030 Agenda. The outline should include: a description of tasks with deadlines; a list of national and local-level partners and beneficiaries; a proposal for the selection of local governments (LGs) where focus group discussions will be organized; methodology of both documents; clear objectives, and expected impact; a proposed chapter structure to ensure clarity and usability and practical recommendations for targeted interventions; public awareness efforts, and institutional responses to aging.

Activity 2. Organize seven focus group discussions with older persons across three regions in Serbia—Southern, Eastern, and Southwestern—to gather real-time insights on improving protection for older persons living in poverty.

Activity 3. Engage in consultations with relevant national stakeholders, including ministries and the World Bank, to refine the methodology and key elements of both documents.

Activity 4. Prepare the first draft of the Analysis of population aging in Serbia, focusing on demographic trends, socioeconomic implications, and policy perspectives in Serbian. The document should be submitted to the UNFPA CO Serbia, the Ministry of Labor, Employment, Veteran and Social Affairs, and the Ministry of Family Welfare and Demography for review, feedback, and quality assurance.

Activity 5. Finalize the Analysis of population aging in Serbia, focusing on demographic trends, socioeconomic implications, and policy perspectives in Serbian.  The document should be submitted to the UNFPA CO Serbia.

Activity 6. Prepare the first draft of the Guide to strengthening the protection of older persons living in poverty in the context of the 2030 Agenda in Serbian. The document should be submitted to the UNFPA CO Serbia, the World Bank, the Ministry of Labor, Employment, Veteran and Social Affairs, and the Ministry of Family Welfare and Demography for review, feedback, and quality assurance.

Activity 7. Finalize the Guide to strengthening the protection of older persons living in poverty in the context of the 2030 Agenda in Serbian. The document should be submitted to the UNFPA CO Serbia.

Activity 8. Participate in a national roundtable discussion to present both the Analysis of population aging in Serbia, focusing on demographic trends, socioeconomic implications, and policy perspectives, and the Guide to strengthening the protection of older persons living in poverty in the context of the 2030 Agenda.

Activity 9. Perform any other duties to support the implementation of project and program activities from the UNFPA CO portfolio.

Qualifications and Experience: 

• Master’s degree in social sciences, political sciences, demography, economics, or a related field. A PhD is considered an advantage.
• At least 10 years of experience in analysis, assessment, report writing, and policy work.
• Proven experience working with statistical agencies, government institutions, international organizations, NGOs, and the academic community. Previous engagements with the United Nations on demographic issues in Serbia are considered an advantage.
• Strong expertise in conducting qualitative and quantitative research related to demography, demographic change and challenges, aging, social policy, and human development in Serbia.
• Understanding of demographic change and aging-related challenges in Serbia and globally, including their societal, economic, and developmental implications.
• Excellent analytical, communication, and coordination skills, with the ability to work effectively in teams.
• Strong organizational skills, ability to prioritize multiple tasks, meet deadlines and work independently.
• Self-motivated, result-oriented, and proactive.
• Excellent communication, writing, and editorial skills in both English and Serbian.

Duration and working schedule:

Expected duration is from 1st April 2025 – 28th February 2026 (to invest up to 70 days).

Working days are shown approximately, while payment will be based on and made upon completion of each deliverable as described below.

How to apply:

Interested individuals with the required qualifications and experience should submit their application to serbia.office@unfpa.org with the subject line “National Consultant responsible for conducting an Analysis of population aging in Serbia, focusing on demographic trends, socioeconomic implications, and policy perspectives, and developing a Guide to strengthening the protection of older persons living in poverty in the context of the 2030 Agenda”. 

The application should include:

• A cover letter, indicating the candidate’s motivation for this consultancy
• An updated copy of the curriculum vitae (CV)

The closing date for the submission of applications is 31.3.2025  March at 23:59 CET.

Only those candidates who meet all qualifications and experience will be contacted for further consideration. Incomplete applications will be automatically disqualified.