The Republic of Serbia is experiencing demographic characteristics of low fertility,
high mortality, negative natural increase rate, negative migration balance, and
depopulation of rural areas. The National Human Development Report Serbia 2022,
conducted by UNFPA and UNDP, highlights that, in light of the inevitable
demographic changes, public policies should be aimed at strengthening the
opportunities, potentials, and freedoms of all people, while demographic issues
should be included in all relevant public policies.
With the objective of changing narratives around inevitable demographic transition,
in 2020, the UNFPA Regional Office for Eastern Europe and Central Asia established
the Demographic Resilience Programme to assist countries in the region with
strengthening their capacity to understand and anticipate the population dynamics
they are experiencing and ensure they have the necessary skills, tools, political will,
and public support to manage them. The Demographic Resilience Programme aims
to develop comprehensive policy responses that are based on evidence and human
rights, prosperity, and well-being for all. Understanding population dynamics from
the perspective of the Demographic Resilience Programme allows one to understand
their implications better and develop adequate political responses that can mitigate
the negative effects of such population dynamics both for an individual's well-being
and for the general socio-economic development of society. This concept is firmly
based on demographic data, such as censuses and special surveys, as well as
demographic tools for their analysis.
The Census of Population, Households, and Dwellings in Serbia was conducted in
October 2022, which is the largest and most complex statistical survey in terms of
content, scope, and organization. The data from the 2022 Census provides
possibilities for demographic analyses and research, providing an adequate situation
analysis of demographic change in Serbia necessary for moving forward in creating
a demographically resilient society. Using the 2022 Census data, during 2023 and
2024 the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (SORS), with the support of the
UNFPA CO Serbia will conduct the project on “Validation and correction of the data
on international migration estimation and population estimates, based on the 2022
Census data” in order to verify the international migration assessment model that
was developed in 2019. An additional goal of the project is a qualitative analysis of
the previously determined volume of migration flows in the period 2011-2018, that is,
the contingents of migrants. Namely, the total number of immigrants and emigrants
will be disaggregated by gender and age in order to be included as a component in
the calculation of the estimated number of inhabitants.
A large number of Serbian citizens live and work abroad. According to the estimates
of the United Nations, the total number of Serbian emigrants in 2019 was around
950,000, which accounts for about 14% of the resident population in the country (excluding Kosovo and Metohija).
1 Despite the fact that Serbian emigration is
characterized by great dispersion, the largest number of Serbian citizens live and
work in the EU member countries and OECD.
The time between the two last Censuses (2011 and 2022) brought major changes in
the dominant migration patterns from Serbia. This is connected with the rise of new
destinations in Central and Eastern Europe, where seasonal and circular labor
migrations are dominant. However, there has been a polarization in traditional
Western European destinations - on one hand, Germany, but also some other
countries such as Norway and Sweden, are intensifying the import of workers from
Serbia, which leads to an increase in the total number of immigrants. On the other
hand, Austria, France, and Italy barely maintain the current level of immigrants from
Serbia, primarily through the mechanism of family reunification.
Although Serbia has significantly improved the state of the labor market through
uninterrupted growth of labor force participation and employment, and reduction of
unemployment over the past decade, it still has relatively low rates of participation
and employment of the resident population. As a predominantly emigrating country,
Serbia does not have sufficiently clear and detailed information about: 1) the number
and spatial distribution of its citizens; and 2) their consolidated participation in the
labor force, employment, and unemployment - regardless of whether their residence
is in the country or abroad.
The purpose of this consultancy is to engage a National Consultant who will provide
such estimates and contribute to the following activities:
1. Assessment of the total volume of the population with Serbian citizenship
and/or with Serbia as the country of birth;
2. Assessment of the main indicators of the labor market for Serbian citizens
residing outside Serbia, and for all Serbian citizens, regardless of the country
where they live.
Furthermore, the consultant will liaise with experts from the Statistical Office of the
Republic of Serbia (SORS), who will conduct the project on “Validation and correction
of the data on international migration estimation and population estimates, based on
the 2022 Census data” in order to synchronize all necessary data on international
migration and population, based on the 2022 Census.
The consolidated global population, labor force, and employment statistics of Serbia
will provide important estimates of the global size and distribution of the Serbian
population, their participation in the labor market, employment, and unemployment.
The obtained information will be an incentive for additional research on the changing
patterns of circular and temporary migration, the connections between internal and
external migration, the consequences of labor migration on the family labor supply
in the country, the movement of the living standard of the population as a result of all
family incomes, including earnings remitted from abroad, and on many other related
topics.
Duration and working schedule:Expected duration from: 1st September 2023 – 31st July 2024 (up to 45 working
days).
Applicants should send their resume (CV) with a motivation letter to vacancies.serbia@unfpa.org, no later than 7th August 2023, 1.00 PM CET.
For more information download full Terms of Reference.
