In 2020, in the region of Eastern Europe and Central Asia, UNFPA launched the
Demographic Resilience Programme, a regional initiative to strengthen the
capacity of countries to respond accurately to the needs emerging from
demographic change, strengthen human capital, and shape a prosperous future
for all. This programme is carried out in partnership with governmental, non
governmental, and private sector stakeholders and is designed in such a way that
it can be tailored to country-specific needs.
In line with the UNFPA Demographic Resilience Programme, UNFPA CO Serbia
conducted the first National Transfer Accounts (NTA) analysis in 2021 by
engaging a team of consultants from the Statistical Office of the Republic of
Serbia (SORS) who worked in close cooperation with an international expert and
the UNFPA EECARO. The SORS provided their expertise and necessary data
from the National Accounts and surveys available to complete the NTA analysis
for Serbia. The analysis was conducted throughout the year 2021 based on the
2018 data. A report was also written including the factual presentations of the
NTA. Based on the 2021 NTA analysis, a report titled “National transfer accounts
and policy recommendations in the social sector of the Republic of Serbia” was
created in 2022 focusing on education, healthcare, and pension system. During
2023, a second NTA analysis was conducted based on 2019 data by engaging
the same team of consultants from the SORS under the supervision of an
international expert and the UNFPA EECARO.
National Transfer Accounts (NTA) provide a coherent accounting framework of
economic flows from one age group generation to another, typically for a national
population in a given calendar year. The NTA estimates show the distribution of
labor income and consumption for all age groups in a country. On this ground, it
is possible to simulate how changes in the number of people and associated
changes in the age structure of the population, might affect aggregate labor
income and consumption patterns of the country, and what these changes, in
turn, imply for the economic development of the country at large. With the results
of the NTA analysis, it is possible to raise awareness of the cost of pension and
health care programmes and to show the importance of ensuring adequate social
protection systems and investing in human capital development.
UNFPA CO Serbia is engaging a National Consultant to develop a policy brief
including soft conclusions and policy recommendations focusing on the field of
education in Serbia based on the 2022 NTA analysis. There are several reasons
for focusing on the education system. The percentage of GDP invested in
education (3.3%) in Serbia is very low compared to other EU countries. Also,
young people in Serbia enter the labor market at a later age (27 years) and retire
early. Therefore, the working life span is also an issue to consider. The
recommendations for the education system come after the recent resignation of
the Minister of Education in May 2023, due to the mass shooting in one
elementary school in Belgrade that left 10 children dead, along with a security
guard, making this the first school shooting in Serbia. Moreover, in January 2023,
the new Youth Strategy 2023-2030 was adopted, and in July 2023, the first Action
Plan 2023-2025 for its implementation was adopted.
The purpose of this consultancy is to translate the 2022 NTA technical analysis
results into soft conclusions and to develop a policy brief, including
recommendations that can be used for informing public policy reforms and as
guidance for the new Minister of Education.

The National Consultant will develop
a policy brief and focus on what the NTA says about changes in the age structure,
and its effects in the following areas:

1. Building human capital (educational opportunities from early childhood to
higher education, access to quality education, boosting productivity)

2. Entering the labor market (school-to-work transition, youth entering labor
market, youth leaving the education system, youth becoming
independent from their parents’ support);
3. Working life span and reducing early retirement (opportunities for
combining pensions and work);
4. Including LNOB groups and their full inclusion in education (inclusive
education);
5. Access to life-long learning (life-long learning initiatives, policies on
active aging, and productive working life);
6. Digital transformation as a source of human capital development
(curricula reform and digitalization, digital literacy among children,
teachers, and parents).
Furthermore, the consultant will make a comparison between the findings from
the 2021 NTA and 2022 NTA and provide recommendations for the education
system, and compare it to the state of education in EU countries.
In developing the policy brief, the consultant will liaise with the relevant actors
from the academic community in order to collect all necessary inputs and with
other international partners who were engaged in similar analytical work (i.e.
World Bank, UNICEF, GIZ, etc.).

The National Consultant is expected to execute the following
tasks/activities:
Task 1. Create a work plan, which will include the methodology, literature review,
and guidelines for the consultations, which are to be held as part of drafting the
policy brief.
Task 2. Develop the first draft of the policy brief, including soft conclusions and
policy recommendations in the field of education in Serbia based on the 2022
NTA analysis focusing on the above-mentioned areas. The first draft of the policy
brief will also include a comparison between the findings from the 2021 NTA and
2022 NTA, recommendations for the education system in Serbia, with a
comparison to the state of education in EU countries.
Task 3. Organize a consultation with relevant stakeholders (Government bodies,
academia, CSOs, international organizations, private partners, etc.) in line with
the guidelines of the policy brief.
Task 4. Finalize the policy brief in line with the feedback and comments of the
experts from UNFPA EECARO. The final policy brief is to be developed in
Serbian.

Applicants should send resume (CV) with a motivation letter to vacancies.serbia@unfpa.org, no later than 7th August 2023, 5.00 PM CET

For more details see attached ful Terms of Reference.