In 2020, in the region of Eastern Europe and Central Asia, UNFPA launched the Demographic Resilience Programme, a regional initiative to strengthen the capacity of countries in this region to respond accurately to the needs emerging from the demographic change, strengthen human capital and shape a prosperous future for all. This programme is carried out in partnership with governmental, non-governmental and private-sector stakeholders and is designed in such a way that it can be tailored to the country-specific needs.
In line with the UNFPA Demographic Resilience Programme, UNFPA Serbia CO conducted the first National Transfer Accounts (NTA) during the 2021 by engaging the team of consultants from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (SORS) who worked in close cooperation with an international expert and UNFPA EECARO. SORS provided their expertise, and necessary data from the National Accounts and surveys available to complete the NTA analysis for Serbia. The analysis was conducted throughout the year 2021 and the findings were presented at an event organized jointly by UNFPA CO Serbia and the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. A report was also written including the factual presentations of the NTA. The report will be made available to the selected consultant as a key reference document for this consultancy. National Transfer Accounts (NTA) provides a coherent accounting framework of economic flows from one age group generation to another, typically for a national population in a given calendar year. The NTA estimates show the distribution of labour income and consumption for all age groups in a country. On this ground, it is possible to simulate how changes in the number of people and associated changes in the age structure of the population, might affect aggregate labour income and consumption patterns of the country, and what these changes in turn imply for the economic development of the country at large. With the results of NTA analysis it is possible to raise awareness of the cost of pension and health care programmes and to show the importance of ensuring adequate social protection systems and investing in human capital development.
The purpose of this consultancy is to translate the 2021 NTA technical analysis results into soft conclusions and to develop a policy brief, including recommendations that can be used for informing public policy reforms. The consultant will undertake an analysis of the NTA and focus on: what the NTA says about changes in the age structure, all else equal, and its effects in the following areas:
(i) potential changes in financing social policies, including health and education,
because of demographic changes, all else equal;
(ii) poverty and inequality (LNOB)
(iii) younger persons
(iv) older persons
(v) gender
(vi) heads up to the upcoming NTTA - National Time Transfer Account
In conducting the analysis the consultant will need to liaise with the relevant actors from the academic community in order to collect all necessary inputs and with other international partners who were engaged in similar analytical work (i.e. World Bank, UNICEF, GIZ etc).
Scope of work:
Consultant is expected to execute the following tasks/activities:
Task 1. Create a work plan with the methodology including literature review and consultations to be implemented as part of the 2021 NTA results analysis and with a view of developing the policy brief.
Task 2. Conduct the desk review and organise consultations with relevant stakeholders in line with the methodology of the analysis.
Task 3. Develop the first draft of the policy brief, including soft conclusions and recommendations based on the analysis of the 2021 NTA in Serbia focusing on: what the NTA says about changes in the age structure, all else equal, and its effects in the following areas:
(i) potential changes in financing social policies, including health and education,
because of demographic changes, all else equal;
(ii) poverty and inequality (LNOB)
(iiI) younger persons
(iv) older persons
(v) gender
(vi) heads up to the upcoming NTTA)
Task 4. Finalise the policy brief in line with the feedback and comments of the experts from UNFPA ECCARO. The final policy brief is to be developed in English by the consultant.
Task 5. Develop a summary presentation of the key messages, in addition to the main document in English and propose a brief policy advocacy plan.
Expected duration from: as soon as possible – 31st July 2022 (up to 25 working days).
Payment will be made upon completion of the deliverable as described below.
The Consultant will perform activities remotely; no travel is envisaged for this consultancy.
Qualifications and Experience:
The consultant is expected to demonstrate:
1. Master’s degree in social sciences, political sciences, economy or related field. PhD is considered an advantage;
2. Experience in working with statistical agencies, governmental, international organizations, NGOs and academic community.
3. Excellent knowledge and experience in analysing and developing government policy recommendations within the field of demographics, social policy, the labour market and human development.
4. Understanding of challenges in Serbia and other countries globally, related to demographic changes and its possible consequences in society and for its economy.
5. Experience of at least 7 years in analyses, assessment, report writing, and policy work.
6. Analytical skills, communication skills and ability for coordination and group/team work;
7. The ability to meet deadlines and dates and to prioritize multiple tasks;
8. Strong organizational skills, self-motivated, result oriented and proactive;
9. Excellent communication, writing and editorial skills in English.
Applicants should sent their resume (CV) with motivation letter and relevant previous work example to vacancies.serbia@unfpa.org, with subject: Application for Consultancy for developing policy brief including soft conclusions and policy recommendations based on the 2021 NTA analysis no later than 24th May, 24:00 CET.
